WX-MAN’s Perspective

In announcing the 2008-2009 U.S. Winter Outlook for meteorological winter from December through February, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures for much of the central part of the nation, and a continuation of drier-than-normal conditions across the Southeast.

With the absence of La Niña and El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean this season (climate patterns that give forecasters clues about potential weather events months in advance), predicting weather patterns on seasonal timescales becomes increasingly challenging. Instead, other climate patterns over the Arctic and North Atlantic regions may play a significant role in influencing U.S. winter weather.

“These patterns are only predictable a week or two in advance and could persist for weeks at a time,” said Michael Halpert, deputy director, Climate Prediction Center. “Therefore, we expect variability, or substantial changes in temperature and precipitation across much of the country.”

Regional Outlooks

· Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation.

· Southeast: Increased chance of above normal temperatures in the central and western parts, along with below-normal precipitation.

· Central Region: Increased chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures, with above- normal precipitation anticipated in parts of the central Plains.

· Western Region: Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures, and an enhanced likelihood of below-normal precipitation across parts of the Southwest.

· Alaska: Milder-than-normal temperatures except along the southern coast. Equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation.

· Hawaii: Above- normal temperatures for eastern Hawaii and below-normal temperatures for western Hawaii. There are equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation throughout the state.

The U.S. Winter Outlook does not include a snowfall forecast. Snow forecasts are heavily dependent upon winter storms and are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.

Prepare for winter weather through NOAA Watch, http://www.noaawatch.gov. The site gives you the latest weather patterns, forecasts and warnings issued by NOAA’s National Weather Service. Also, tune in to NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards to get your up-to-the-minute local forecast and warnings.

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

On the Web:

NOAA’s 2008-2009 U.S. Winter Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

Winter Weather Safety Information: http://www.noaawatch.gov/themes/winter.php

(Hat tip Dave Hartland)

Dave brought this to my attention over twitter, yes I am on twitter and you can find me at @BrianNeudorff. I know I have had my share of typos. I sometimes write numbers backwards. So a 45 might look like 54 but I usually correct myself but this is a BIG mistake by the NWS in Cleveland on their zone forecast from Thursday afternoon. Look at the forecast for Thursday:

In case you can’t read the print, this is an actual forecast on the National Weather Service website for next Thursday: (I made a copy of all the zones here)

THURSDAY….CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURE FALLING TO AROUND 80 BELOW IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.

Now, I know some of the meteorologist who work at the National Weather Service office in Cleveland. They have always been helpful, they are very good at what they do, very smart, but that is funny. They did send out new zone forecasts less than an hour later to correct their mistake. I have made mistakes before but so far nothing that drastic.

Here was Dave’s take on it:

Now, I am not going to question what the guys at the National Weather Service do to put a forecast together. But something tells me that it is not going to be 80 below zero here next Thursday.

Enjoy

When it comes to weather this day is one of my favorites in history, and especially when I spent my time in Erie, PA, the daily record high in Erie is 71 and the record low is 18 and all of this happened in one day, November 12, 1911.

Now that I am living in Rochester, NY it doesn’t appear that Rochester had any records on this day back in 1911 but November, 13 the record low is 18 degrees back on 1911.

I also read this from the Buffalo NWS Forecast Discussion:

A NOTE IN HISTORY FOR NOVEMBER 12TH. IN 1911 A RECORD HIGH OF 69 FOR BUFFALO WAS SET JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THAT DAY AND THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED 47 DEGREES TO A RECORD LOW OF 22 BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS IS THE LARGEST CALENDAR DAY DROP IN TEMPERATURE FOR BUFFALO. BOTH OF THOSE RECORDS HAVE BEEN TIED SINCE THEN BUT NEVER BROKEN. IT IS THE ONLY DAY IN THE RECORD HISTORY FOR BUFFALO THAT BOTH A RECORD HIGH AND A RECORD LOW WERE SET ON THE SAME DAY.

Outside of the daily high and low, I could not find any other information on the type of weather Erie or Buffalo saw that day. Luckily this even took place over a large portion of the United States between November 11-12 1911.

On November 11, 1911 (remembered easily for now as 11/11/11), the afternoon temperature in Oklahoma City reached a record high for the date of 83, before plunging 66 degrees to a record low of 17 at midnight that evening. Both daily temperature records remain unbroken and untied 96 years later.

Record high and low temperatures occurring on the same day are rare, but they do happen. A search of local records from around the United States shows no less than 18 such pairs currently on the record books at various observing stations. Most of these stations have kept daily records for 50 years or more. The hard part, though, is not setting both records but keeping them without one or the other being broken in later years. In seven of the 18 known pairs of same-day records, one or the other of the two records has been tied (either before or since the day in question). Of the sets of same-day unbroken/untied records, none are more than seven years old. In this sense, the pair of daily records at Oklahoma City on 11/11/11 is unique because of the amazing length of time over which both the record high and low have survived. Which is the same case for 11/12/11 in Erie, PA. By comparison, the second-longest standing unbroken/untied record for high and low temperatures on the same day occurred on May 16, 1997, in Sioux City, Iowa, with a high of 91 and a low of 33.

It began with a Canadian high pressure system that began to build over Alberta as early as November 9. A low pressure system began to organize over the Rockies on the 10th and moved east into Iowa and Missouri on the 11th. Unseasonably warm air was drawn northward ahead of the low on the 11th, while in its wake, cold air plunged south across the entire central United States.

The unseasonably cold air eventually overspread the entire eastern United States as well, routinely dropping temperatures 30 to 70 degrees in a matter of hours. In Chicago, one man was overcome by heat and two others froze to death within a 24-hour period. Severe thunderstorms erupted from the mid-Mississippi valley into the Great Lakes, spawning destructive tornadoes in parts of Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan that killed at least a dozen people. Strong winds behind the cold front reached 30 to 50 mph in many areas, with gusts over 70 mph in some locations. The high winds tore a barge from its towing ship off the New England coast. Fourteen crew members were given up as lost.

11 November 1911, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma : An arctic cold front, known as a Blue Norther, roars across the state. Temperature at Oklahoma City dives from a record high of 83°F (28.3°C) to an midnight low of 17°F (-8.3°C), also a record. By early morning on the 12th, the temperature had dropped to 14°F (-10°C) a drop of 69 F degrees (38.3 C deg) in less than 24 hours.

11 November 1911, Janesville, Wisconsin :The same intense winter storm spawns a tornado (later classified as F4 on the Fujita Scale) that strikes a community near Janesville. Within an hour of the tornado, the residents must deal with blizzard conditions and temperatures near 0°F (-18°C).

Last of the Indian Summer Days, originally uploaded by Brian.Neudorff.

This has been a great couple of days. Ever since election day the weather here in western NY has been beautiful. Unfortunately, this nice weather is going to end as we had into the weekend. I will try to have more later.

From the National Hurricane Center’s Public Advisory on Paloma at 4am EST:

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM
PALOMA…

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO LIMON HONDURAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
PALOMA.  WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM EST…0900Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH…LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES…110 KM…EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH…11 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT…WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH…
65 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS…AND PALOMA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES…35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER EASTERN HONDURAS…NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA…AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.