WX-MAN’s Perspective

For the past few days meteorologist have been watching a large wave of disturbed weather coming off the coast of Africa. Now this area as been upgraded to Tropical Depression TWO and could become the second named storm of the season with the name Bertha.

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO NOW BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. BANDING FEATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LATE YESTERDAY THAT SHOWED SOME RELIABLE 25-30 KT WINDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL MODELS…ESPECIALLY THE GFS…SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF GENESIS IN THIS AREA OVER A WEEK AGO…A REMARKABLE ACHIEVEMENT…

…VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS NEAR THIS SYSTEM…SO THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS THE COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR IN ITS PATH. AFTER ABOUT 24 HR ON THE NHC TRACK…SSTS DROP BELOW 26C AND STAY BELOW THAT THRESHOLD FOR A COUPLE DAYS. THEREAFTER SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY AND MOST GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO…SHOWING STRENGTHENING AT THE START AND END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN BETWEEN WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE COOLEST SSTS. THE SHIPS/GFDL MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS SYSTEM…MAKING IT A HURRICANE WITHIN 5 DAYS.

This will have to be watched over the next through days…

Warnings and
3-Day Cone

Warnings and
5-Day Cone

Many of the blogs I have been connected to or frequent often did something like this. Here is an open blog discussion. Weather is so talked about in our daily lives. Some of us start conversations by saying, “Gee, how about this weather?” There have been so many topics over the past 3 weeks from the flooding in the Midwest, the active start to the Tornado and severe weather season, to what connection, if any, the extreme weather has to climate change and man made global warming.

This is also your opportunity to ask a broadcast meteorologist any kind of question you want? I would like to make this a weekly post. I do something few in the media do and that is make ourselves available to the public. I enjoy talking to people, and I have always wanted to see more interaction take place here on this site. Thank you and I look forward to some of the comments. Sincerely, your WX-Man Brian Neudorff

Some of you may have noticed that I have a google talk script on the upper right side. If I am logged in please feel free to talk to me live.

I was planning on a couple posts over the next few days, but this morning WX-Man.com was hacked. Someone managed to access the WordPress Dashboard and then put code, that I know of, in parts of my site. Well I am in the process of looking over code and changing passwords for virtually EVERYTHING. If you see or notice something that doesn’t seem right or is in Russian, please let me know. Thanks

An article from the Guardian, Put oil firm chiefs on trial, says leading climate change scientist, reports that:

James Hansen, one of the world’s leading climate scientists, will today call for the chief executives of large fossil fuel companies to be put on trial for high crimes against humanity and nature, accusing them of actively spreading doubt about global warming in the same way that tobacco companies blurred the links between smoking and cancer.

Do you think this is the right idea? If this is what needs to be done in the name of “Global Warming” what is the next step. Who are the next criminals? Would a broadcast meteorologist need to be charged and tried “for high crimes against humanity and nature” if they don’t go on air right after a tornado, hurricane, flooding or any other extreme weather and say this event was due to global warming and all of us are to blame.

There are scientist, meteorological and climatological, that don’t necessarily accept that humans are fully responsible for all of the global warming and many of these scientist just want an open debate. Is that a bad thing? I want to see a debate on this issue. I think it is important, especially in the realm of science, that an open debate and a open flow of theories and ideas, scientifically based, are allowed. Am I wrong? What do you think?